This study provides a prospective approach to support decisions for the development of the wood energy supply chain by conducting an assessment of the potential availability of tree species for wood biomass energy systems by 2050 in France.
Prior to this, there is the need to assess the potential impact of global warming on the vegetation dynamics within France.
For this reason, a research conducted by MINES ParisTech, AgroParisTech and Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahuaresearch assessed the reaction to climate change and the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) variation towards 2050 of five wood species: Fagus sylvatica (beech), Populus nigra (Italian poplar), Abies alba (fir), Picea excelsa (spruce) and Pinus silvestris (Scotch pine).
A model to evaluate the spatial distribution of the most suitable areas related to the climatic behaviour of crops was combined with a Net Primary Productivity (NPP) model to assess the variability of growth.
Final results show that the five different species shows some differences in their potential distribution: spruce has the most significant decrease whereas the Italian poplar presents the slightest one.
The IPCC RCP6.0 scenario average shows an overall decrease of 22% while Net Primary Productivity (NPP) points out a potential decrease for 93% of the plots where these species should grow: the latter one indicates an increase of this parameter in mountain areas too.
Therefore, climate change and warming temperatures may have an impact on collective energy system as well as on the spatial distribution of natural protected areas.
Future occupational risks faced by workers in the areas of steep slopes may be taken into account too.
This post is based on the presentation Potential Effects of Global Warming on the Spatial Distribution and Productivity of Five Tree Species Used in the Wood Energy Supply Chain in France for 2050 by E. Garbolino, W. Daniel, G. Hinojos Mendoza, presented at the 26th European Biomass Conference & Exhibition.
The full presentation is available open access in the official proceedings of the conference.